Very interesting data. However, I assume the people continuing to get boosters may have a disproportionate number of elderly? They seem to be the most afraid. Most of the younger people seemed to get the initial vaccines because they had to for work, school, travel etc. Could that be the case?
Nov 14, 2022·edited Nov 14, 2022Liked by John Cave
I can explain the counter-argument or the half you are missing since you politely requested it at the end of your article. First, let's use your 53.4% number who are 3+ boosted and your vaccination status figure of 81.9% have 2 doses or more. We can figure out how many have 2 doses pretty quickly via subtraction of all people 3 or more from those 2 or more giving us just those with 2 doses. Ready? 81.9 - 53.4 = 28.5% of the population are 2-dosed.
Okay? With me so far? 28.5% of the population had 2 doses. Easy easy calculation. Next, let's look at your data for how many hospitalizations exist for people 2 with 2 doses. How many hospitalizations are in this 28.5% group? According to your data 18%.
Sooooo 28.5% of the population is experiencing ONLY 18% of the hospitalizations. This group seems to be UNDER effected by covid compared to the unvaccinated/boosted groups.
Now, people who have taken 4 doses? They tend to be very-old and very-sick to begin with like 60-70+. Even before covid, the vast majority of healthcare resources have ALWAYS been used by the elderly. They use far more bed-days, care-hours, nursing-hours, icu-days, surgeries, etc.
Any metric you pick, we spend tons looking after people 60+ to 70+. A 24 year old basically pre-covid would only end up in the hospital in two scenarios. Extreme stupidity, ex. if he did something stupid mountain biking and broke an arm. Or replace mountain bike with skateboard or replace skateboard with 'tiktok challenge' or add the phrase 'while drunk/hold my beer'. These 'exceptional' individuals were the rarity. The other scenario is a developmentally disabled person, person with cancer, person with type 1 diabetes or some kind of pre-existing condition as a result of a bad-roll of luck in life. These are the exception to the rule and these people also tended to be triple/quad-vaccinated so they aren't even part of the 'unvaccinated' group or '2 dose' group. These healthy 18-25 year olds are the ones who probably took 2 doses for work/university and then stopped. So they should be under-reported based off health-alone and 70-80+ should be over represented based off health-alone who are likely to be the 4 dosers.
Age is the number one mortality factor. So really, you should be looking at the relationship between age and number of vaccines. Interestingly, unvaccinated people are often 40 or under and generally healthy, which leads to the "I don't need this shot" mentality because I'm "fit/young/healthy/have vitality/good immune system". Unvaccinated are 14.7% of the population and make up 15% of the hospitalizations. They are very slightly over-represented. Is this because of their youth/fitness/vitality/good immune systems? The two-dose-vaccination groups are under represented at 18% while making up 28.5% of population so they are doing far-better than the unvaccinated.
IF the vaccine is super-ineffective, why are double-vaccinated doing far-better than unvaccinated, when unvaccinated are generally younger, healthier and fitter with better immune systems? Everyone keeps saying vaccinated people's immune system are ruined but two-dose people are doing SUPERIOR?! HUH?! Is it more plausible, a quad-boosted person is hospitalized more often because they are 70+ and 70+ always get hit hard by flus/vaccinations/have used the vast bulk of hospital visits for decades or are people with a bunch of pre-existing conditions like cancer/type-1 diabetes, etc so covid hits them hard because of these pre-existing conditions? or because the vaccine is ineffective at 4 doses, yet very effective, at 2 doses?
It is a bit of a logically inconsistent pseudo-scientific conspiracy theory that relies you to ignore the effectiveness show in the two-dose group, and strictly compare young-healthy-unvaccinated people against 70-80+ quad-boosted people and say the boosters didn't work because young healthy people are healthier and ignoring the moderate-health people who took the shot, are under represented in hospitalizations and doing well.
But if you do what you did and just ignore the 2 doses people and ignore the age demographics behind unvaccinated versus four doses, then sure, its highly ineffective looking. If you look for confounding variables/explanatory variables not in your limited model, your model falls apart faster than a first-year students end-of-term-project made of cardboard, glue, tape and the previous 2 days sweat.
Very interesting data. However, I assume the people continuing to get boosters may have a disproportionate number of elderly? They seem to be the most afraid. Most of the younger people seemed to get the initial vaccines because they had to for work, school, travel etc. Could that be the case?
I can explain the counter-argument or the half you are missing since you politely requested it at the end of your article. First, let's use your 53.4% number who are 3+ boosted and your vaccination status figure of 81.9% have 2 doses or more. We can figure out how many have 2 doses pretty quickly via subtraction of all people 3 or more from those 2 or more giving us just those with 2 doses. Ready? 81.9 - 53.4 = 28.5% of the population are 2-dosed.
Okay? With me so far? 28.5% of the population had 2 doses. Easy easy calculation. Next, let's look at your data for how many hospitalizations exist for people 2 with 2 doses. How many hospitalizations are in this 28.5% group? According to your data 18%.
Sooooo 28.5% of the population is experiencing ONLY 18% of the hospitalizations. This group seems to be UNDER effected by covid compared to the unvaccinated/boosted groups.
Now, people who have taken 4 doses? They tend to be very-old and very-sick to begin with like 60-70+. Even before covid, the vast majority of healthcare resources have ALWAYS been used by the elderly. They use far more bed-days, care-hours, nursing-hours, icu-days, surgeries, etc.
Any metric you pick, we spend tons looking after people 60+ to 70+. A 24 year old basically pre-covid would only end up in the hospital in two scenarios. Extreme stupidity, ex. if he did something stupid mountain biking and broke an arm. Or replace mountain bike with skateboard or replace skateboard with 'tiktok challenge' or add the phrase 'while drunk/hold my beer'. These 'exceptional' individuals were the rarity. The other scenario is a developmentally disabled person, person with cancer, person with type 1 diabetes or some kind of pre-existing condition as a result of a bad-roll of luck in life. These are the exception to the rule and these people also tended to be triple/quad-vaccinated so they aren't even part of the 'unvaccinated' group or '2 dose' group. These healthy 18-25 year olds are the ones who probably took 2 doses for work/university and then stopped. So they should be under-reported based off health-alone and 70-80+ should be over represented based off health-alone who are likely to be the 4 dosers.
Age is the number one mortality factor. So really, you should be looking at the relationship between age and number of vaccines. Interestingly, unvaccinated people are often 40 or under and generally healthy, which leads to the "I don't need this shot" mentality because I'm "fit/young/healthy/have vitality/good immune system". Unvaccinated are 14.7% of the population and make up 15% of the hospitalizations. They are very slightly over-represented. Is this because of their youth/fitness/vitality/good immune systems? The two-dose-vaccination groups are under represented at 18% while making up 28.5% of population so they are doing far-better than the unvaccinated.
IF the vaccine is super-ineffective, why are double-vaccinated doing far-better than unvaccinated, when unvaccinated are generally younger, healthier and fitter with better immune systems? Everyone keeps saying vaccinated people's immune system are ruined but two-dose people are doing SUPERIOR?! HUH?! Is it more plausible, a quad-boosted person is hospitalized more often because they are 70+ and 70+ always get hit hard by flus/vaccinations/have used the vast bulk of hospital visits for decades or are people with a bunch of pre-existing conditions like cancer/type-1 diabetes, etc so covid hits them hard because of these pre-existing conditions? or because the vaccine is ineffective at 4 doses, yet very effective, at 2 doses?
It is a bit of a logically inconsistent pseudo-scientific conspiracy theory that relies you to ignore the effectiveness show in the two-dose group, and strictly compare young-healthy-unvaccinated people against 70-80+ quad-boosted people and say the boosters didn't work because young healthy people are healthier and ignoring the moderate-health people who took the shot, are under represented in hospitalizations and doing well.
But if you do what you did and just ignore the 2 doses people and ignore the age demographics behind unvaccinated versus four doses, then sure, its highly ineffective looking. If you look for confounding variables/explanatory variables not in your limited model, your model falls apart faster than a first-year students end-of-term-project made of cardboard, glue, tape and the previous 2 days sweat.
Talk to Sheldon of Yak Stack
Great find!
You’re not missing anything imo. It’s a reflection of what is happening all over the world, no coincidence.