In August I posted about SARS-COV-2 reinfection rates based on UK data. At that time reinfections equaled ~35% of first infections and total daily infections were between 2,800 and 4,500. I decided to take a look at the current data this weekend to see how things were progressing. Below is a chart I created from a download of the current data.
As you can see, while the rates for daily new infections increased into October they have since been on a fairly steady decline now hovering around 2,500 per day. Conversely, the ratio of reinfections to first infections has been on the rise. On November 1st reinfections surpassed 50% of first infections for the first time ever.
So the question is, what if anything can we discern from this data? Could this data imply that for some people SARS-COV-2 infection is becoming chronic? Could this data also imply that the number of people for which this is the case is increasing? Obviously we can’t tell from just this data set but it will be interesting to see how these numbers evolve going forward. As such I’ll keep an eye on this with a view to providing a further update in the near future.
Thanks to everyone that continues to participate in this discussion. As always I’m interested in your viewpoints. What do you make of all this?
Dr. Paul Alexander has suggested that continual reinfection will occur in the vaccinated/boosted due to mistrained immune systems and increased intensity on the viral mutation rate. Unvaccinated may respond against new mutations in the virus more effectively. At least I think I understand his ideas that are based on his research. He has a Substack I’ve been following for awhile.
I know a few people who are unvaccinated and have had at least one reinfection. This makes me wonder what their Vitamin D levels are.
I guess the take-home is that COVID makes you more susceptible to COVID?